S-MD Using Probability to Make Decisions
A. Calculate expected values and use them to solve problems
2. Calculate the expected value of a random variable; interpret it as the mean of the probability distribution.
5. Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values.
a. Find the expected payoff for a game of chance. For example, find the expected winnings from a state lottery ticket or a game at a fast-food restaurant.
b. Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values. For example, compare a high-deductible versus a low-deductible automobile insurance policy using various, but reasonable, chances of having a minor or a major accident.
7. Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).
S-MD.2,5 Sounds Really Good! (sort of…)